I’ve been pondering how the vaccine programme has been developing over early January 2021 and what this may suggest – as there are clear increases in capacity being rolled out as the weeks go on. Also what happens when the 2nd doses are required and what does this do to the continuing rollout of the 1st doses of the vaccine in the UK.
It looks like there’ll be an interesting effect from mid- to late-March as the 1st dose programme starts to be constrained by the need to fulfill the 2nd dose requirement. Obviously dependent upon how and when the vaccination centres expand, but also on the supply of vaccine doses.
It could well be particularly noticeable in April that numbers of 1st doses will be much lower than in the first months of the year as the 2nd doses requirement takes much of the capacity.
I’ve used a few numbers in the public domain together with an awful lot of assumptions to model what this could look like. Guesswork perhaps, but seems to pass a number of reality checks.
The good news is that the whole of the originally announced 1st phase of 9 priority groups (50+, at risk groups, health & social care workers) could be achieved before this slowing down of first doses, but the 2nd phase groups (still to be notified, unless it is simply ‘everyone else’) are likely to start with a slower rate than has been established by that point. This assumes that a high proportion in the groups, though not all, wish to take the vaccine (currently Yougov’s monitor of vaccination willingness suggests c 83%, and rising, of adults in the UK will take a Covid-19 vaccine).
Many things can affect these scenario projections – weather events, manufacturing constraints, distribution disruptions, wastage & accidents, optimal appointment scheduling, and other factors will impact delivery. My estimates assume some of these issues will arise along the way – so asto not be overly optimistic – but there are always likely to be a few totally unpredictable supply issues, particularly at local levels perhaps.
So here's my scenario projection – based on modelling & assumptions on capacity, supply, distribution, participation, commencement of 2nd dose programme, and continuation rate etc. etc. Lots of caveats (please note them) ……
— MysteriousNumbers (@ChrisNviews) January 16, 2021
With more & more new #VaccineCenters opening, I'm starting to wonder if this scenario will be little cautious. There's likely bumps in the road along the way, some of which are expected in my assumptions. Lots of caveats..#VaccineUK pic.twitter.com/W1aE8XRzyB
— MysteriousNumbers (@ChrisNviews) January 18, 2021